"We are now in the era of confident stupidity! (and it is having a tremendous impact on opportunities for innovation!)"- Futurist Jim Carroll
Idiocracy, the movie, is a documentary.
I've been saying for several months now that it's a pretty difficult time to be a futurist. Actually, sometimes it's maddening.
With that in mind, let's take on the issue of the "confident stupidity" that now surrounds us. The fact is, the rejection of expertise is reshaping business, innovation, and our future, and not in a good way. If you like, you can grab the little 10-page PDF I created - it's here - and share it around.
https://pdf.jimcarroll.com/The-Arrival-of-Confident-Stupidity.pdf
And I actually created two versions of the deck - here's the second one with a little more detail. It actually contains this nugget of information - the cost of confident stupidity!
- $2.8 trillion in lost market value - that's the estimated annual impact of misinformation on companies. Just ask anyone in the solar industry how things are going.
- 3.5x - the average delay in the adoption of new technologies and science
- 67% trust erosion - that's the decline in trust that people have in scientific institutions in the last decade.
Yikes.
What is "confident stupidity"?
It isn't about a person's intelligence. I'll use the phrase to describe individuals who firmly reject expert knowledge on significant subjects such as science, technology, and health, even when faced with overwhelming evidence.
This behaviour is not the same as honest questioning or healthy skepticism. It is characterized by the confident dismissal of well-established facts in favour of alternatives that are appealing but false. Examples can be seen across various fields:
-Climate Change: Rejecting many decades of climate science, despite a 99% agreement among experts.
-Vaccines: Dismissing the medical consensus on the safety and effectiveness of vaccines.
- Technology: Claiming that proven innovations like solar power and electric vehicles (EVs) are "failures".
It's bad, and getting worse.
With all this, the business impact is already here. Companies are losing contracts, people are losing jobs, and industries are being sent into an almost irreversible decline. Much of this didn’t need to happen.
Read the rest of the post.
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Futurist Jim Carroll is baffled by the mindset of many of the people he meets.
**#Stupidity** **#Expertise** **#Misinformation** **#Science** **#Innovation** **#Trust** **#Rejection** **#Knowledge** **#Progress** **#Future**
Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/09/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-misinformation-and-innovation-we-are-now-in-the-era-of-confident-stupidity/